One of my best clients just wrote me after seeing our Pittsburgh +160 selection and stated Ken, “you know how scary the Pirates are?” My response was “Indeed I do but @ +160 it is very clear where the value lies. The implied probability at +160 is 38.5%. I give Pittsburgh a 47.5% likelihood of winning the F5. That’s a 10% value which is substantial when you consider most plays are in the 3-4% range.”
Would I bet the ranch on the Pirates winning the F5 in game #1 today? Absolutely not! We do have considerable value @ +160 however and that is what this business is all about.
– Ken Murphy
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